Falling Mortgage Rates Are Bringing Buyers Back
If you’ve been hesitant to list your house because you’re worried no one’s buying, here’s your sign it may be time to talk with an agent.After months of high rates keeping buyers on the sidelines, things are starting to shift. Rates are already coming down due to a number of economic factors. And yesterday the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Funds Rate for the first time since they began raising that rate in March 2022. And while they don’t control mortgage rates, this sets the stage for mortgage rates to fall even further than they already have – especially since more cuts from the Fed are expected into next year. And lower mortgage rates are bringing more buyers back into the market. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:“A drop in the cost of borrowing will help fuel more homebuyer demand . . . Falling rates will also bring more sellers into the market.”The best part? You can take advantage of that renewed buyer interest.As Rates Fall, Buyer Activity Goes UpThe graph below illustrates the relationship between falling mortgage rates and rising buyer activity. The orange line represents the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, while the blue line shows the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Application Index, which tracks the number of mortgage applications.As you can see, as mortgage rates (orange) come down, the Mortgage Application Index (blue) rises, showing more people start to re-engage in the process (see graph below):What This Means for YouAccording to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home sales increased in July, which was a welcome shift after four straight months of declines. If you're a homeowner thinking about selling, this uptick in buyer activity works in your favor.More buyers means more competition, which can lead to higher offers and shorter time on the market for your house. And, according to Edward Seiler, AVP of Housing Economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), this trend is expected to continue:“MBA is expecting that slower home-price appreciation, coupled with lower rates, will ease affordability constraints and lead to increased activity in the housing market.”All in all, the market is becoming more accessible to a wider range of buyers, which could result in even more people looking to purchase a house like yours.With more buyers entering the market, now’s the time to start getting your house ready to sell.Bottom LineThe recent decline in mortgage rates is already driving more buyers into the market, and experts project this trend will continue. Let’s work together to take advantage of this increased buyer demand and get your house ready to sell. Reach me at https://linktr.ee/brianeastwoodrealtor. It can be overwhelming, but I’m here to help.
Buyers: Recessions are Good for Most Home Buyers, Sellers Get Off the Fence as Mortgage Rates Continue to Drop
The real estate market has been nothing short of, well, just plain weird in the last month. Inventory has crept up, but Buyers are still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect rate. Media talk of recession has many spooked, but a recession of any magnitude can be an opportunity for buyers and sellers. But, don't just take my word for it, hear what our smart economists at the Cromford Report have to say about each segment, and as we approach market balance - let's have a solid plan in place whether your goal is to buy or sell; let's get the most value for you no matter what your goal. For Buyers:It may be hard to believe, but recessions are historically the beginning of a turnaround for the housing market. After enduring more than 2 years of declining sales, sellers and buyers may start moving and transacting again. While recessions are negative for the economy (as they coincide with higher unemployment), two things typically occur that turn the housing market positive. The first is home value stabilization. In every recession since 1970 (except for one infamous recession in 2008) home values had minimal fluctuation and appreciation year-over-year. The second is mortgage rates. Every recession since 1970 saw mortgage rates decline while at least 90% of the labor force remained employed. According to the August employment report from the Arizona Dept of Economic Opportunity, private sector earnings rose 7.3% annually in June, and 5.3% in July. Both rates are higher than the rate of inflation, and higher than the rate of home price appreciation. The combination creates an environment for increased home sales as affordability improves due to higher incomes, lower rates, and flat home appreciation. Unfortunately, Mortgage News Daily showed zero improvement in purchase mortgage applications in August. The housing market simply doesn’t move as fast as the stock market, and it takes time for buyers to warm their engines and apply for mortgages after rates begin their decline. Partly because they wait to see if rates continue down or stabilize, but also because they don’t have an acceptable home in sight for motivation. As a result, application data often picks up after showings increase. Future buyers may have one other obstacle to overcome, and that’s selling their existing home. This is what Greater Phoenix is experiencing now. As expectations of sustained rate declines increase, it’s sellers who are getting off the fence first. Weekly new listings are up 11% since rates began their decline on August 1st. These sellers will most likely become buyers within 1-3 months. This creates a good opportunity for buyers who are ready today. An early boost in supply without an offsetting boost in competing buyers means the buying environment will remain relaxed and accommodating over the next few months until the new year begins. For Sellers:September and October are the last hurrahs for home sale activity as 2024 enters its last stretch. New listings activated during this time should be well priced and in competitive condition to the listings around them. The median marketing time before contract is currently 33 days, so most properties listed in September should expect a contract in October. However, sellers who wait to list until late October will run into holiday speed-bumps that could tack on an extra 1-2 weeks before an acceptable contract. While lower mortgage rates are expected to boost demand in price ranges under $2M, they don’t have much effect on the high-end luxury market where 55% of sales over $2M are cash. Recessions are not good for luxury because they coincide with poor stock market performance and stagnate corporate profits, which are the primary drivers for demand in this segment. So far, multiple headlines warning of an approaching recession are not tanking the stock market, and luxury listings under contract for September are higher than any other year. Other good news for luxury sellers, high cancellation rates from May-July dropped supply counts and launched Paradise Valley back into a seller’s market. In fact, all luxury sellers in the Northeast Valley saw market improvements from lower supply counts. However, uncertainty can still stall luxury sales in the 4th quarter. If unemployment rates continue to rise and uncertainty grows over a recession and the November election, the hope of an October rally could fade and contract activity stagnate until the election and holiday seasons have run their course. Hope and optimism will return at the kickoff of 2025 along with perfect weather, tourism, and an increasing flow of contracts.
The Real Story Behind What’s Happening with Home Prices
If you’re wondering what’s going on with home prices lately, you’re definitely not the only one. With so much information out there, it can be hard to figure out your next move.As a buyer, you might be worried about paying more than you should. And if you're thinking of selling, you might be concerned about not getting the price you're aiming for. So, here's a quick breakdown to help clear things up and show you what’s really happening with prices—whether you're thinking about buying or selling. Home Price Growth Is Slowing, but Prices Aren’t Falling NationallyThroughout the country, home price appreciation is moderating. What that means is, prices are still going up, but they're not rising as quickly as they were in recent years. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to make the shift from 2023 to 2024 clear:But rest assured, this doesn't mean home prices are falling. In fact, all the bars in this graph show price growth. So, while you might hear talk of prices cooling, what that really means is they're not climbing as fast as they were when they skyrocketed just a few years ago.What’s Next for Home Prices? It’s All About Supply and Demand You might be curious where prices will go from here. The answer depends on supply and demand, and it’s going to vary by local market.Nationally, the number of homes for sale is going up, but there still aren’t enough of them to meet today’s buyer demand. That’s keeping upward pressure on prices – even though recent inventory growth has caused that home price appreciation to slow. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, said:“. . . today’s low but quickly improving for-sale inventory has ushered in more market balance than would otherwise be expected . . . This should help home prices maintain a slower pace of growth.” And here’s one other thing you may not have considered that could play a role in where prices go from here. Since experts say mortgage rates should continue to decline, it’s likely more buyers will re-enter the market in the months ahead. If demand picks back up, that could make prices climb a bit further.Why You Should Work with a Local Real Estate Agent While national trends give a big-picture view, real estate is always local – especially when it comes to prices. What's happening in your neighborhood might be different from the national average based on what supply and demand look like in your market. That’s why it's crucial to get local insights from a knowledgeable real estate agent. As your go-to source for everything related to home prices, a local agent can provide the most current data and trends specific to your area.So, if you’re planning to sell, they can help you price your house accurately. And when you’re ready to buy, they can find the right home that fits your budget and your needs.Bottom LineHome prices are still rising, just not as quickly as before. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just curious about what your house is worth, let’s connect so you have the personalized guidance you need. I'm here to help - give me a call at 602-330-6813 and let's put a plan in place to help you reach your goals.
Recent Posts
